Only 5.5% of Asylum Cases Decided in June Were Granted: What That Number Means and What It Does Not

A frightening number can push you into two bad decisions: abandoning your case, or filing it badly out of panic. It is worth understanding what the number actually measures before deciding anything.

At Campos Law Firm, we closely monitor developments in U.S. immigration policy to protect our clients’ rights and future. Here is what the data says and what is still within your control.

What do the numbers actually say?

On August 31, 2026, TRAC (the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse) at Syracuse University published its analysis of immigration court decisions, and the EFE news agency carried it in Spanish in early September.

In June 2026, immigration judges decided more than 14,000 asylum cases. Of those:

• 5.5% were granted: roughly 771 people received asylum that month.
• 94.1% were denied.
• 0.4% received another form of protection.

Read the base carefully: the percentage covers cases decided during June, not every pending application. And June was a record month for volume: April and May each saw roughly 13,000 decisions.

The historical comparison is what drives the headline. The grant rate was above 50% early in the previous administration and had fallen to 32% by its end. The drop to 5.5% happened in a matter of months.

Why did the rate change so much?

TRAC documents a deep change in who decides these cases, not only in how many are decided.

During fiscal years 2025 and 2026, roughly 279 judges were fired or resigned: about 38% of the 735 on the bench at the end of fiscal year 2024. In parallel, 192 new permanent judges and 53 temporary judges were appointed.

The result is a different court. Of the 743 judges who decided cases in fiscal year 2026, only 322 — 43% — were already serving before the change in administration. And according to the analysis, roughly three out of four judges with prior experience raised their denial rates compared with their own 2021 record.

That is the real environment: more decisions, faster, and a far larger share of recently appointed judges.

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Does this mean your case has a 5.5% chance?

No. A national average is not an individual forecast, and treating it as one is an expensive mistake.

The outcome of an asylum case depends on factors that this single percentage blends together:

• The court and the judge assigned. Differences across jurisdictions and among judges have been enormous for years, and still are.
• Whether you are detained or free, because it changes the time available to gather evidence.
• Nationality and documented country conditions in the country of origin.
• The legal theory invoked: documented political-opinion persecution is not the same as a case built on generalized fear.
• Whether you have legal representation. TRAC itself notes that representation consistently affects outcomes, and the difference is not marginal.

That said, it would be dishonest to reassure you: the adjudication environment is far more restrictive today than two years ago. The right response is neither complacency nor surrender, but preparing the file as if every detail will be examined — because it will be.

What makes the difference in an asylum file?

• The one-year deadline. The application (Form I-589) must be filed within one year of your last entry, absent changed or extraordinary circumstances that must be proven. It is the most common avoidable ground for denial.
• Corroboration, not testimony alone. Police reports, medical records, messages, photographs, witness letters, publications, letters from organizations. Credible testimony may suffice in theory, but in practice the judge asks about what could reasonably have been obtained.
• Documented country conditions, using recent State Department reports, international organizations, and serious press coverage — not scattered clippings.
• A clear legal theory: which of the five protected grounds applies — race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group — and how it connects to what happened to you.
• Consistency across everything you have said. The credible fear interview, the written declaration, and your testimony in court must tell the same story. Contradictions about dates and details are the most frequent path to an adverse credibility finding.
• Alternative forms of relief, assessed from the start: withholding of removal and protection under the Convention Against Torture have different requirements, and not every case should ride on asylum alone.
• The appeal. A denial is not the end: the notice of appeal to the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA) carries a strict 30-day deadline that is not extended.

Protect Your Asylum Case with Campos Law Firm

A national percentage does not decide your case. Your evidence, your legal theory, and the consistency of your account do.

At Campos Law Firm we review your file, identify what evidence is missing and what alternative paths fit your situation, and tell you honestly where your case stands. Do not leave your immigration status to chance. Call us today at +1 (844) 922-6767 to schedule a free, confidential consultation in English or Spanish. Campos Law Firm: Legal Solutions in All Areas of Law.