At Campos Law Firm, we closely monitor developments in U.S. immigration policy to protect our clients’ rights and future. On October 22, 2026, the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), an independent Washington think tank, published a fact sheet estimating about 660,000 deportations in the last fiscal year and close to 980,000 in the first 18 months of the current administration, as the Associated Press reported.
It is a big number, and headlines frame it as either a record or a failure depending on who is reading. Below, we explain what is known, what is not, and what you can do.
What does the MPI report say?
The analysis, written by researcher Marc R. Rosenblum, covers January 20, 2025, through July 31, 2026. It estimates about 620,000 deportations in fiscal year 2025 and a pace of about 660,000 in fiscal year 2026, which is 26% above the yearly average for 2021 through 2024 but far below the all-time high of 1.86 million recorded in 2000 and the goal of 1 million a year the administration set after receiving additional funding from Congress.
Other findings matter as much as the total. According to MPI, only 20% of those deported had a criminal conviction; 61% of deportations carried out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) involved people with at least two years in the country, and about 90,000 had lived here ten years or more. Interior arrests rose from 28% of deportations in 2025 to 39% by July 2026.
What counts as a “deportation” in that figure?
This is the key to reading the number without being misled. MPI adds together two categories the law treats very differently: removals and returns. A removal (about 580,000, or 59%) is the execution of a formal order, issued by an immigration judge or by an officer at the border through expedited removal. It leaves an order on your record and, in general, a bar on reentry of 5, 10, or 20 years, or permanent for repeat entries or serious convictions.
A return (about 410,000 between enforcement and administrative returns, or 41%) is a departure without a formal order: for example, when Customs and Border Protection (CBP) turns someone back at the border, or when ICE grants voluntary departure. MPI counts about 170,000 voluntary departures since January 2025, an all-time high; attorneys quoted by AP warn that many people accept it simply to get out of detention. Voluntary departure avoids a removal order, but it comes with strict deadlines and, if you miss them, it converts into a deportation order with a fine and a reentry bar.
“Self-deportations” through the CBP Home app or the paid-flight program are not part of the 980,000. The government claims some 2 million people have left on their own; MPI calls that figure unlikely and estimates between 310,000 and 1.5 million.
Estimate or official figure?
It is a researchers’ estimate, not an audited official count, and that should be said every time it is cited. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) stopped publishing detailed enforcement reports in January 2025, so MPI rebuilt the data from CBP records and from ICE files obtained by the Deportation Data Project through Freedom of Information Act requests.
Official figures, moreover, do not agree with each other. MPI documents that DHS reported 845,931 deportations in July 2026 and, at nearly the same time, spoke of “more than 985,000”; on October 20 the administration claimed 1.2 million people deported or removed during the second term, a discrepancy AP could not reconcile. White House spokesperson Lauren Bis responded to the report by saying the president “has delivered the largest reduction in illegal immigration in modern history.”
What does it mean for you if you have an open case?
A national figure does not predict the outcome of a single file. What it does reveal is where the pressure is heading: more interior arrests, more people with years of roots, and more voluntary departures signed while in detention. If you have a pending case, these are the decisions that matter:
- Never sign a voluntary departure or a stipulated order without advice: you give up defenses such as asylum, cancellation of removal, or adjustment of status, and the clock to leave starts that moment.
- Know your situation: a pending Notice to Appear (NTA), a final removal order, an in absentia order for missing court, and an expired voluntary departure are four different scenarios with different remedies.
- Review your entry history and prior orders: an earlier removal can expose you to reinstatement of that order without a hearing; better to know it before ICE does.
- Do not miss any hearing or check-in: an in absentia order is among the hardest to undo and is exactly what feeds these statistics.
- Prepare a family plan: documents within reach, a power of attorney for your children, and an attorney’s number. Our immigration attorneys can review your options before an arrest happens, not after.
Protect Your Immigration Status with Campos Law Firm
The 660,000 deportations MPI estimates describe a policy, not your future. As Attorney Alejandra Campos, founder of Campos Law Firm, reminds clients, national figures do not predict how an individual case will end: what counts is your entry history, your prior orders, your pending proceedings, and the forms of protection still available to you.
Do not leave your immigration status to chance. Call us today at +1 (844) 922-6767 to schedule a free, confidential consultation in English or Spanish. Campos Law Firm: Legal Solutions in All Areas of Law.
With information from the Associated Press and the Migration Policy Institute.
